Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rio de Janeiro, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Rio de Janeiro 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Bulgaria	16:00	Max Sport 2
Czech Republic	15:00	Oneplay, Premier Sport 2
Finland	16:00	MTV Katsomo+
France	15:00	Eurosport 2
Germany	15:00	Sky Sport Tennis
Greece	16:00	COSMOTE Sport 8
Hungary	15:00	Match 4
Netherlands	15:00	Ziggo Sport 4, Ziggo Sport
Poland	15:00	Polsat Sport 3
Portugal	14:00	Sport TV7
Romania	16:00	Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport PPV 2
Sweden	15:00	TV4 Tennis
United Kingdom	14:00	Sky Sports Tennis


	Alejandro Tabilo		Ignacio Buse

	1	2
	1.62	2.3	Watch
	1.67	2.18	Watch
	1.67	2.25	Watch
	1.67	2.2
	1.63	2.32	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↑ (1.61)	2.25 ↓ (2.32)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alejandro Tabilo
57.7%

Ignacio Buse
42.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

59%

41%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.6%

42.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alejandro Tabilo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Ignacio Buse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alejandro Tabilo than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ignacio Buse than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	0%	18.2%

Alejandro Tabilo - Ignacio Buse Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 9.5 Games, 1st Set - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 Sets - Tabilo (2.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Alejandro Tabilo will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Alejandro Tabilo will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Tabilo (votes: 10 - 90.9%). Buse (votes: 1 - 9.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Tabilo is ranked ATP: 68. Buse is ranked ATP: 91.

Tabilo is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Buse's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Buse may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Tabilo is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Tabilo won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Alejandro Tabilo - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 59.04%, but this team recently wins 100% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alejandro Tabilo
ATP Rio de Janeiro
20.02.26	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Alejandro Tabilo	1:2 ✺
18.02.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Francesco Passaro	2:1 ✺
16.02.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Emilio Nava	2:0 ✺
ATP Buenos Aires
13.02.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	1:2 ✺
11.02.26	Joao Fonseca - Alejandro Tabilo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWWLW
- Ignacio Buse
ATP Rio de Janeiro
20.02.26	Ignacio Buse - Matteo Berrettini	2:1 ✺
19.02.26	Joao Fonseca - Ignacio Buse	1:2 ✺
16.02.26	Igor Marcondes - Ignacio Buse	1:2 ✺
16.02.26	Laslo Djere - Ignacio Buse	Canceled ✺
ATP Buenos Aires
12.02.26	Ignacio Buse - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 WWW?L

Latest Head to Head

Davis Cup World Group
04.02.24	Alejandro Tabilo - Ignacio Buse	2:1
ATP Challenger
22.11.23	Alejandro Tabilo - Ignacio Buse	2:0

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