Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Indian Wells, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 12 March 2026, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 1, Premier Sport 2
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
France	Eurosport 1
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top Event
Hungary	Match 4
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Poland	Polsat Sport 3
Portugal	Sport TV3
Romania	Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport 3
Sweden	TV4 Tennis
Ukraine	Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Jack Draper		Daniil Medvedev

	1	2
	2.63	1.5	Watch
	2.55	1.52
	2.58	1.57
	2.45	1.58	Watch
	2.6	1.5
	2.55	1.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↑ (2.34)	1.54 ↓ (1.59)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jack Draper
37.6%

Daniil Medvedev
62.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

59.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

57.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jack Draper has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Daniil Medvedev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jack Draper than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jack Draper, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniil Medvedev than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Daniil Medvedev, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.6%	0%	84.4%

Jack Draper - Daniil Medvedev Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Sets - Draper (4.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

H/A, 2nd Set - Draper (2.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

H/A, 1st Set - Draper (2.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Daniil Medvedev will win (27 of 32 users predict this - 84.38%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.8% – 96.96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Daniil Medvedev will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Draper (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Medvedev (votes: 10 - 71.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Draper is ranked ATP: 14. Medvedev is ranked ATP: 11.

Draper is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Medvedev is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Medvedev may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Medvedev might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Medvedev will win today's game, with odds of 1.58.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Draper won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jack Draper
ATP Indian Wells
11.03.26	Novak Djokovic - Jack Draper	1:2 ✺
09.03.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Jack Draper	0:2 ✺
07.03.26	Roberto Bautista-Agut - Jack Draper	1:2 ✺
ATP Dubai
25.02.26	Arthur Rinderknech - Jack Draper	2:1 ✺
23.02.26	Quentin Halys - Jack Draper	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWWLW
- Daniil Medvedev
ATP Indian Wells
11.03.26	Daniil Medvedev - Alex Michelsen	2:0 ✺
09.03.26	Daniil Medvedev - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
07.03.26	Daniil Medvedev - Alejandro Tabilo	2:0 ✺
ATP Dubai
28.02.26	Daniil Medvedev - Tallon Griekspoor	Medvedev D. walkover ✺
27.02.26	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Daniil Medvedev	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWW?W

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roma
11.05.24	Jack Draper - Daniil Medvedev	0:2

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