Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 30 April 2025, Wednesday


	Jack Draper		Tommy Paul

	1	2
	1.53	2.5	Watch
	1.57	2.35	Watch
	1.55	2.48	Watch
	1.57	2.57
	1.56	2.39	Watch
	1.57	2.38	Watch
	1.56	2.45	Watch
	1.55	2.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (1.58)	2.45 ↑ (2.29)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jack Draper
61.1%

Tommy Paul
38.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.2%

40.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58%

42%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jack Draper has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Tommy Paul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jack Draper than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tommy Paul than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.5%	0%	38.5%

Jack Draper - Tommy Paul Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Draper will win (votes: 15 - 60%). Paul will win (votes: 10 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Draper: 40.8% – 79.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Tommy Paul will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Draper is ranked ATP: 6. Paul is ranked ATP: 12.

Recent matches Draper is playing unstable (in the last 5 games, wins - 3).

Paul is in first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games, wins - 4).

Draper will have a small advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Draper won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:5 (average 1.6:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jack Draper
ATP Madrid
29.04.25	Jack Draper - Matteo Berrettini	Berrettini M. retired ✺
26.04.25	Jack Draper - Tallon Griekspoor	2:0 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
10.04.25	Jack Draper - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	1:2 ✺
08.04.25	Jack Draper - Marcos Giron	2:0 ✺
ATP Miami
22.03.25	Jakub Mensik - Jack Draper	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 ?WLWL
- Tommy Paul
ATP Madrid
29.04.25	Karen Khachanov - Tommy Paul	1:2 ✺
26.04.25	Joao Fonseca - Tommy Paul	0:2 ✺
ATP Houston
05.04.25	Tommy Paul - Jenson Brooksby	1:2 ✺
04.04.25	Tommy Paul - Colton Smith	2:0 ✺
02.04.25	Tommy Paul - Christian Garin	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP London
21.06.24	Jack Draper - Tommy Paul	1:2
ATP Acapulco
26.02.24	Jack Draper - Tommy Paul	2:0
ATP Australian Open
17.01.24	Tommy Paul - Jack Draper	3:1
ATP Adelaide
11.01.24	Tommy Paul - Jack Draper	0:2
ATP Adelaide 2
10.01.23	Tommy Paul - Jack Draper	0:2

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