Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Houston, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 4 April 2025, Friday


	Tommy Paul		Colton Smith

	1	2
	1.36	3.2	Watch
	1.45	2.7	Watch
	1.36	3.05	Watch
	1.41	2.93	Watch
	1.44	2.75	Watch
	1.38	3.08	Watch
	1.36	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↑ (1.3)	2.97 ↓ (3.42)

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tommy Paul
68%

Colton Smith
32%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

72.4%

27.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

74.1%

25.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tommy Paul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Colton Smith has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tommy Paul than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tommy Paul, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Colton Smith than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Colton Smith, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.2%	0%	14.8%

Tommy Paul - Colton Smith Predictions

Users Predictions: Tommy Paul will win (23 of 27 users predict this - 85.19%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.79% – 98.59%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Tommy Paul will win (12 of 13 users predict this - 92.31%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Paul is ranked ATP: 13. Smith is ranked ATP: 200.

Recent matches Paul is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Smith is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Smith could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Paul will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tommy Paul
ATP Houston
02.04.25	Tommy Paul - Christian Garin	2:1 ✺
ATP Miami
23.03.25	Francisco Cerundolo - Tommy Paul	2:0 ✺
21.03.25	Alexander Bublik - Tommy Paul	1:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
12.03.25	Tommy Paul - Daniil Medvedev	0:2 ✺
09.03.25	Tommy Paul - Cameron Norrie	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WLWLW
- Colton Smith
ATP Houston
02.04.25	Colton Smith - Ethan Quinn	2:0 ✺
01.04.25	Colton Smith - James Duckworth	2:0 ✺
30.03.25	Liam Draxl - Colton Smith	0:2 ✺
29.03.25	Evan Zhu - Colton Smith	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
14.03.25	Nuno Borges - Colton Smith	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWWWL

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