Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: French Open, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 30 May 2025, Friday

Location: Stade Roland-Garros (Paris)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max
Croatia	Max
Czech-republic	Max
Denmark	Max
Finland	Max
France	France TV Rolan Garros, Max
Hungary	Max
Norway	MAX
Poland	Max
Romania	Max
Serbia	Max
Slovenia	Max
Sweden	Max
Usa	Max


	Karen Khachanov		Tommy Paul

	1	2
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.7	2.1
	1.76	2.08	Watch
	1.83	2.09
	1.78	2.04	Watch
	1.67	2.2
	1.82	1.99	Watch
	1.76	2.08
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (2.08)	2.09 ↑ (1.75)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Karen Khachanov
54.3%

Tommy Paul
45.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.6%

54.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.7%

54.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Karen Khachanov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Karen Khachanov's performance.

Tommy Paul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tommy Paul might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Karen Khachanov than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Karen Khachanov that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tommy Paul than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tommy Paul could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20.8%	0%	79.2%

Karen Khachanov - Tommy Paul Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 28 Selected Experts predict this event. Khachanov (votes: 8 - 28.6%). Paul (votes: 20 - 71.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Sets - Paul (2.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 Games - Paul (2.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 36.5 Games - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Tommy Paul will win (38 of 47 users predict this - 80.85%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.6% – 92.1%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 30 Selected Experts predict this event. Khachanov (votes: 8 - 26.7%). Paul (votes: 22 - 73.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Khachanov is ranked ATP: 24. Paul is ranked ATP: 12.

Khachanov has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Paul is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Paul may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Khachanov won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Karen Khachanov
ATP Roland Garros
28.05.25	Karen Khachanov - Sebastian Ofner	3:2 ✺
26.05.25	Karen Khachanov - Aleksandar Vukic	3:0 ✺
ATP Geneva
22.05.25	Karen Khachanov - Sebastian Ofner	1:2 ✺
21.05.25	Karen Khachanov - Kei Nishikori	Nishikori K. retired ✺
ATP Roma
13.05.25	Karen Khachanov - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WWL?L
- Tommy Paul
ATP Roland Garros
28.05.25	Marton Fucsovics - Tommy Paul	2:3 ✺
25.05.25	Elmer Moller - Tommy Paul	1:3 ✺
ATP Roma
16.05.25	Jannik Sinner - Tommy Paul	2:1 ✺
15.05.25	Hubert Hurkacz - Tommy Paul	0:2 ✺
13.05.25	Tommy Paul - Alex De Minaur	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Madrid
29.04.25	Karen Khachanov - Tommy Paul	1:2
ATP Miami
26.03.22	Tommy Paul - Karen Khachanov	2:1

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