Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Indian Wells, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 8 March 2026, Sunday


	Joao Fonseca		Tommy Paul

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.75	1.45	Watch
	2.95	1.46
	2.84	1.43	Watch
	2.75	1.44
	2.88	1.46	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.82 ↑ (2.35)	1.45 ↓ (1.62)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Joao Fonseca
33.9%

Tommy Paul
66.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

59.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

63%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Joao Fonseca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Joao Fonseca's form might have worsened.

Tommy Paul has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tommy Paul's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Joao Fonseca than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tommy Paul than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Joao Fonseca - Tommy Paul Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Tommy Paul will win (11 of 11 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Tommy Paul will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Fonseca is ranked ATP: 35. Paul is ranked ATP: 24.

Fonseca has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Paul is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Paul may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Paul could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Paul will win today's game, with odds of 1.61.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Fonseca won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Tommy Paul - the odds 1.62 are the expected chance of winning is 59.24%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Joao Fonseca
ATP Indian Wells
07.03.26	Karen Khachanov - Joao Fonseca	1:2 ✺
04.03.26	Joao Fonseca - Raphael Collignon	2:0 ✺
ATP Rio de Janeiro
19.02.26	Joao Fonseca - Ignacio Buse	1:2 ✺
17.02.26	Joao Fonseca - Thiago Monteiro	2:0 ✺
ATP Buenos Aires
11.02.26	Joao Fonseca - Alejandro Tabilo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWLWL
- Tommy Paul
ATP Indian Wells
06.03.26	Zizou Bergs - Tommy Paul	0:2 ✺
ATP Delray Beach
22.02.26	Tommy Paul - Sebastian Korda	0:2 ✺
21.02.26	Tommy Paul - Learner Tien	2:1 ✺
20.02.26	Taylor Harry Fritz - Tommy Paul	0:2 ✺
19.02.26	Adam Walton - Tommy Paul	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Madrid
26.04.25	Joao Fonseca - Tommy Paul	0:2

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