Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 26 April 2025, Saturday


	Jacob Fearnley		Tomas Machac

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.7	1.45	Watch
	2.75	1.45
	2.86	1.46
	2.76	1.44	Watch
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.74	1.46	Watch
	2.75	1.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↓ (2.99)	1.45 ↑ (1.39)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jacob Fearnley
34.4%

Tomas Machac
65.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.7%

68.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.8%

69.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jacob Fearnley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Tomas Machac has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jacob Fearnley than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tomas Machac than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.1%	0%	76.9%

Jacob Fearnley - Tomas Machac Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Fearnley will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Machac will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Machac: 54% – 99.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 9.5 Games, 1st Set - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Fearnley (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +3.5 Games - Fearnley (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Tomas Machac will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Fearnley (votes: 3 - 50%). Machac (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Fearnley is ranked ATP: 68. Machac is ranked ATP: 20.

Instantly two players are in a excellent shape.

Fearnley could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Machac is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Machac to win the game is with odds 1.38.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jacob Fearnley
ATP Madrid
24.04.25	Bu Yunchaokete - Jacob Fearnley	0:2 ✺
22.04.25	Jacob Fearnley - Hugo Dellien	2:0 ✺
21.04.25	Jacob Fearnley - Pavel Kotov	2:1 ✺
ATP Barcelona
17.04.25	Jacob Fearnley - Alex De Minaur	0:2 ✺
14.04.25	Roberto Carballes Baena - Jacob Fearnley	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 WWWLW
- Tomas Machac
ATP Barcelona
14.04.25	Tomas Machac - Francis Tiafoe	Canceled ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
09.04.25	Tomas Machac - Alex De Minaur	1:2 ✺
08.04.25	Tomas Machac - Sebastian Baez	2:1 ✺
ATP Miami
25.03.25	Tomas Machac - Jakub Mensik	Mensik J. walkover ✺
24.03.25	Reilly Opelka - Tomas Machac	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 ?LW?W

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