Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Monte Carlo, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 9 April 2025, Wednesday


	Tomas Machac		Alex De Minaur

	1	2
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2.05	1.75	Watch
	2.12	1.73	Watch
	2.19	1.66	Watch
	2	1.8	Watch
	2.12	1.74	Watch
	2.12	1.73
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (1.8)	1.73 ↓ (2)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tomas Machac
45.2%

Alex De Minaur
54.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.6%

47.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.1%

46.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tomas Machac has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tomas Machac's form might have worsened.

Alex De Minaur has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alex De Minaur's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tomas Machac than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tomas Machac, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex De Minaur than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alex De Minaur, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60.7%	0%	39.3%

Tomas Machac - Alex De Minaur Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Machac will win (votes: 17 - 60.7%). De Minaur will win (votes: 11 - 39.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Machac: 42.6% – 78.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Machac (votes: 7 - 70%). De Minaur (votes: 3 - 30%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 8.5 Games, 1st Set - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Machac is ranked ATP: 21. De Minaur is ranked ATP: 10.

Machac in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches De Minaur is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

De Minaur could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both players are almost equal.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tomas Machac
ATP Monte Carlo
08.04.25	Tomas Machac - Sebastian Baez	2:1 ✺
ATP Miami
25.03.25	Tomas Machac - Jakub Mensik	Mensik J. walkover ✺
24.03.25	Reilly Opelka - Tomas Machac	0:2 ✺
22.03.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Tomas Machac	1:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
07.03.25	Tomas Machac - Yosuke Watanuki	Machac T. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 W?WW?
- Alex De Minaur
ATP Miami
25.03.25	Alex De Minaur - Matteo Berrettini	0:2 ✺
24.03.25	Alex De Minaur - Joao Fonseca	2:1 ✺
22.03.25	Alex De Minaur - Bu Yunchaokete	2:0 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
12.03.25	Francisco Cerundolo - Alex De Minaur	2:0 ✺
10.03.25	Hubert Hurkacz - Alex De Minaur	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWWLW

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