Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 24 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Grandstand (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
Hungary	HBO Max
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Poland	HBO Max
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max


	Jakub Mensik		Nicolas Jarry

	1	2
	1.33	3.2	Watch
	1.36	3.1
	1.35	3.11	Watch
	1.41	3.09
	1.38	2.99	Watch
	1.4	2.9
	1.43	3.08	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↑ (1.35)	3.07 ↓ (3.43)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jakub Mensik
69%

Nicolas Jarry
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.8%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.2%

29.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jakub Mensik has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Nicolas Jarry has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jakub Mensik than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nicolas Jarry than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Jakub Mensik - Nicolas Jarry Predictions

Users Predictions: Jakub Mensik will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Jakub Mensik will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Mensik is ranked ATP: 16. Jarry is ranked ATP: 103.

Mensik has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Jarry has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Mensik may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Mensik is the team to beat.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jakub Mensik
ATP Cincinnati
12.08.25	Jakub Mensik - Luca Nardi	Mensik J. retired ✺
10.08.25	Jakub Mensik - Ethan Quinn	2:0 ✺
ATP Toronto
01.08.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Jakub Mensik	2:0 ✺
30.07.25	Tristan Boyer - Jakub Mensik	0:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
05.07.25	Flavio Cobolli - Jakub Mensik	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 ?WLWL
- Nicolas Jarry
ATP Winston-Salem
17.08.25	Kamil Majchrzak - Nicolas Jarry	2:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
07.08.25	Pedro Martinez Portero - Nicolas Jarry	2:1 ✺
ATP Kitzbuhel
22.07.25	Botic Van De Zandschulp - Nicolas Jarry	2:1 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
06.07.25	Nicolas Jarry - Cameron Norrie	2:3 ✺
04.07.25	Nicolas Jarry - Joao Fonseca	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LLLLW

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