Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Indian Wells, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 8 March 2026, Sunday


	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina		Jakub Mensik

	1	2
	2.2	1.67	Watch
	2.23	1.66	Watch
	2.27	1.71
	2.29	1.63	Watch
	2.2	1.67
	2.28	1.69	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (2.17)	1.67 ↓ (1.69)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
42.7%

Jakub Mensik
57.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.8%

56.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.9%

53.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Jakub Mensik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jakub Mensik than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
24%	0%	76%

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Jakub Mensik Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Davidovich Fokina will win (votes: 6 - 24%). Mensik will win (votes: 19 - 76%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mensik: 59.3% – 92.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Davidovich Fokina (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Mensik (votes: 7 - 63.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Davidovich Fokina (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Davidovich Fokina (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Mensik (votes: 7 - 58.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Davidovich Fokina is ranked ATP: 19. Mensik is ranked ATP: 12.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Davidovich Fokina may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Davidovich Fokina won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:4. (average 1.4:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Jakub Mensik - the odds 1.69 are the expected chance of winning is 56.23%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
ATP Indian Wells
06.03.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Zachary Svajda	2:0 ✺
ATP Acapulco
25.02.26	Mattia Bellucci - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0 ✺
23.02.26	Daniel Altmaier - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0:2 ✺
ATP Dallas
13.02.26	Denis Shapovalov - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:1 ✺
11.02.26	Alex Michelsen - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WLWLW
- Jakub Mensik
ATP Indian Wells
06.03.26	Marcos Giron - Jakub Mensik	0:2 ✺
ATP Dubai
26.02.26	Jakub Mensik - Tallon Griekspoor	1:2 ✺
25.02.26	Jakub Mensik - Alexei Popyrin	2:0 ✺
24.02.26	Jakub Mensik - Hubert Hurkacz	2:0 ✺
ATP Doha
20.02.26	Arthur Fils - Jakub Mensik	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Toronto
01.08.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Jakub Mensik	2:0
ATP Eastbourne
26.06.25	Jakub Mensik - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0:2
ATP Australian Open
16.01.25	Jakub Mensik - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:3
ATP Dubai
28.02.24	Jakub Mensik - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	Mensik J. retired
ATP Doha
20.02.24	Jakub Mensik - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0

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