Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday


	Jasmine Paolini		Elise Mertens

	1	2
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2.11	1.74	Watch
	2.07	1.88
	2.13	1.71	Watch
	2	1.8
	2.12	1.74	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↑ (1.83)	1.77 ↓ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jasmine Paolini
45.8%

Elise Mertens
54.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.7%

45.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jasmine Paolini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Elise Mertens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jasmine Paolini than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jasmine Paolini, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elise Mertens than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Elise Mertens, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Jasmine Paolini - Elise Mertens Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Paolini will win (votes: 12 - 60%). Mertens will win (votes: 8 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paolini: 38.5% – 81.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Paolini (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Mertens (votes: 5 - 55.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Paolini is ranked WTA: 8. Mertens is ranked WTA: 22.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paolini won 1.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Paolini won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 4:9. (average 0.7:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Jasmine Paolini - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jasmine Paolini
WTA Roma
07.05.26	Jasmine Paolini - Leolia Jeanjean	2:1 ✺
WTA Madrid
25.04.26	Hailey Baptiste - Jasmine Paolini	2:0 ✺
23.04.26	Laura Siegemund - Jasmine Paolini	1:2 ✺
WTA Stuttgart
15.04.26	Zeynep Sonmez - Jasmine Paolini	2:0 ✺
WTA Billie Jean King Cup World Group
11.04.26	Jasmine Paolini - Moyuka Uchijima	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 WLWL?
- Elise Mertens
WTA Roma
07.05.26	Panna Udvardy - Elise Mertens	0:2 ✺
WTA Madrid
26.04.26	Elise Mertens - Karolina Pliskova	1:2 ✺
24.04.26	Elise Mertens - Alexandra Eala	2:0 ✺
WTA Stuttgart
16.04.26	Karolina Muchova - Elise Mertens	2:1 ✺
14.04.26	Elise Mertens - Ella Seidel	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

WTA Eastbourne
26.06.24	Elise Mertens - Jasmine Paolini	Mertens E. retired
WTA Monastir
22.10.23	Jasmine Paolini - Elise Mertens	0:2
WTA Doha
21.02.22	Elise Mertens - Jasmine Paolini	2:1
WTA Indian Wells
08.10.21	Elise Mertens - Jasmine Paolini	1:2
WTA Prague
11.08.20	Jasmine Paolini - Elise Mertens	1:2
WTA Billie Jean King Cup World Group
21.04.18	Jasmine Paolini - Elise Mertens	0:2

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