Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cherbourg (France), hard (indoor) - Quarter-finals

Date: 14 March 2025, Friday


	Jelle Sels		Yuta Shimizu

	1	2
	2.5	1.5	Watch
	2.2	1.6	Watch
	2.36	1.53	Watch
	2.44	1.6
	2.52	1.51
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.31	1.57	Watch
	2.36	1.53
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (2.04)	1.55 ↓ (1.69)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jelle Sels
39.6%

Yuta Shimizu
60.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.3%

54.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.9%

58.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jelle Sels has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Jelle Sels's form might have worsened.

Yuta Shimizu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Yuta Shimizu's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jelle Sels than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yuta Shimizu than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Jelle Sels - Yuta Shimizu Predictions

Users Predictions: Yuta Shimizu will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Sels is ranked ATP: 367. Shimizu is ranked ATP: 197.

Sels in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Shimizu is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Sels could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both players.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jelle Sels
ATP Challenger
13.03.25	Jelle Sels - Adrien Gobat	2:0 ✺
11.03.25	Antoine Escoffier - Jelle Sels	0:2 ✺
04.03.25	Jelle Sels - Zsombor Piros	Sels J. retired ✺
ITF Tournaments
27.02.25	Jelle Sels - Lorenzo Carboni	Sels J. retired ✺
25.02.25	Jelle Sels - Mika Petkovic	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WW??W
- Yuta Shimizu
ATP Challenger
12.03.25	Maxime Janvier - Yuta Shimizu	0:2 ✺
10.03.25	Denis Yevseyev - Yuta Shimizu	1:2 ✺
03.03.25	Aziz Dougaz - Yuta Shimizu	2:0 ✺
06.02.25	Yuta Shimizu - Christian Langmo	1:2 ✺
04.02.25	Yuta Shimizu - Kousuke Ogura	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWLLW

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