Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cagliari, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 30 April 2026, Thursday


	Jesper De Jong		Adrian Mannarino

	1	2
	1.25	3.75	Watch
	1.19	4.2	Watch
	1.19	4.2	Watch
	1.19	5.04
	1.19	4.24	Watch
	1.17	4.5	Watch
	1.13	4.95	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.19 ↓ (1.31)	4.41 ↑ (3.19)

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jesper De Jong
78.8%

Adrian Mannarino
21.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.9%

29.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.3%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jesper De Jong has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jesper De Jong's performance.

Adrian Mannarino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Adrian Mannarino might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jesper De Jong than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jesper De Jong that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Adrian Mannarino than the current prediction. (+10.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Adrian Mannarino could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Jesper De Jong - Adrian Mannarino Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. De Jong will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

De Jong is ranked ATP: 109. Mannarino is ranked ATP: 46.

De Jong has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Mannarino has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Mannarino may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, De Jong is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, De Jong won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jesper De Jong
ATP Challenger
28.04.26	Stefano Travaglia - Jesper De Jong	1:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
22.04.26	Rafael Jodar - Jesper De Jong	2:1 ✺
ATP Barcelona
12.04.26	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Jesper De Jong	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	Jesper De Jong - Benjamin Bonzi	2:0 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
04.04.26	Christian Garin - Jesper De Jong	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLLWL
- Adrian Mannarino
ATP Madrid
22.04.26	Ignacio Buse - Adrian Mannarino	2:0 ✺
ATP Barcelona
13.04.26	Nuno Borges - Adrian Mannarino	2:0 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
06.04.26	Zizou Bergs - Adrian Mannarino	2:0 ✺
ATP Bucharest
03.04.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Adrian Mannarino	2:1 ✺
ATP Miami
20.03.26	Tommy Paul - Adrian Mannarino	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Beijing
24.09.25	Adrian Mannarino - Jesper De Jong	2:0

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