Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Monte Carlo - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Monte Carlo 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Christian Garin		Jesper De Jong

	1	2
			Watch
	1.95	1.75	Watch
	2.2	1.71
	2.13	1.68	Watch
	2	1.73	Watch
	1.98	1.83	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.2)	1.74 ↑ (1.62)

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Christian Garin
45.9%

Jesper De Jong
54.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.4%

57.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.2%

51.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Christian Garin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Jesper De Jong has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Christian Garin than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jesper De Jong than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	0%	28.6%

Christian Garin - Jesper De Jong Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Garin will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). De Jong will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Garin is ranked ATP: 100. De Jong is ranked ATP: 99.

Recent form of Garin has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, De Jong has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

De Jong may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Jesper De Jong - the odds 1.62 are the expected chance of winning is 57.59%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Christian Garin
ATP Miami
16.03.26	Christian Garin - Liam Draxl	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
11.03.26	Christian Garin - Dalibor Svrcina	0:2 ✺
ATP Santiago
26.02.26	Christian Garin - Sebastian Baez	1:2 ✺
24.02.26	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Christian Garin	1:2 ✺
ATP Rio de Janeiro
16.02.26	Christian Garin - Thiago Augustin Tirante	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLLWL
- Jesper De Jong
ATP Marrakech
30.03.26	Jesper De Jong - Yannick Hanfmann	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
24.03.26	Samuele Pieri - Jesper De Jong	1:2 ✺
21.03.26	Jesper De Jong - Roberto Carballes Baena	1:2 ✺
20.03.26	Jesper De Jong - Pablo Llamas Ruiz	2:0 ✺
18.03.26	Jesper De Jong - Max Houkes	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWLWW

Christian Garin - Jesper De Jong