Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Vienna - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday


	Jesper De Jong		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
			Watch
			Watch
	2.29	1.64
	2.36	1.53	Watch
	2.07	1.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (2)	1.62 ↓ (1.75)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jesper De Jong
42%

Matteo Arnaldi
58%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.7%

53.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.5%

53.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jesper De Jong has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jesper De Jong than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Jesper De Jong - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Arnaldi (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

De Jong is ranked ATP: 82. Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 74.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

De Jong may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, De Jong won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.7:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jesper De Jong
ATP Stockholm
15.10.25	Jesper De Jong - Marton Fucsovics	0:2 ✺
ATP Shanghai
06.10.25	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Jesper De Jong	2:0 ✺
04.10.25	Jesper De Jong - Jakub Mensik	2:1 ✺
02.10.25	Yi Zhou - Jesper De Jong	1:2 ✺
ATP Beijing
24.09.25	Adrian Mannarino - Jesper De Jong	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LLWWL
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Brussels
15.10.25	Yannick Hanfmann - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
ATP Shanghai
04.10.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
02.10.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Rei Sakamoto	2:0 ✺
ATP Tokyo
23.09.25	Marton Fucsovics - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
22.09.25	Luca Nardi - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Umag
25.07.23	Jesper De Jong - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2
ATP Challenger
06.10.22	Jesper De Jong - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2
27.04.22	Jesper De Jong - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1

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