Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Indian Wells, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 9 March 2026, Monday


	Jessica Pegula		Jelena Ostapenko

	1	2
	1.2	4.5	Watch
	1.22	4.4	Watch
	1.24	4.58
	1.28	3.85	Watch
	1.22	4.2
	1.24	4.09	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.23 ↓ (1.33)	4.27 ↑ (3.25)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jessica Pegula
77.6%

Jelena Ostapenko
22.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.5%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jessica Pegula has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jessica Pegula's performance.

Jelena Ostapenko has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jelena Ostapenko might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jessica Pegula than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jessica Pegula that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jelena Ostapenko than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jelena Ostapenko could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Jessica Pegula - Jelena Ostapenko Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Pegula will win (votes: 9 - 75%). Ostapenko will win (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pegula: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Pegula (votes: 3 - 60%). Ostapenko (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

H/A, 2nd Set - Ostapenko (3.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

H/A, 1st Set - Ostapenko (3.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 Sets - Ostapenko (7.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Pegula (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Ostapenko (votes: 5 - 62.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Pegula is ranked WTA: 5. Ostapenko is ranked WTA: 26.

Pegula has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Ostapenko's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Pegula may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Pegula is a strong favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Pegula won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 1.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jessica Pegula
WTA Indian Wells
07.03.26	Jessica Pegula - Donna Vekic	2:1 ✺
WTA Austin
24.02.26	Jessica Pegula - Rebecca Sramkova	Canceled ✺
WTA Dubai
21.02.26	Elina Svitolina - Jessica Pegula	0:2 ✺
20.02.26	Jessica Pegula - Amanda Anisimova	2:1 ✺
19.02.26	Clara Tauson - Jessica Pegula	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 W?WWW
- Jelena Ostapenko
WTA Indian Wells
07.03.26	Katie Volynets - Jelena Ostapenko	0:2 ✺
WTA Dubai
16.02.26	Jelena Ostapenko - Anna Kalinskaya	1:2 ✺
WTA Doha
13.02.26	Jelena Ostapenko - Victoria Mboko	0:2 ✺
12.02.26	Jelena Ostapenko - Elisabaetta Cocciaretto	2:0 ✺
11.02.26	Jelena Ostapenko - Maria Camila Osorio Serrano	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

WTA Beijing
04.10.23	Jessica Pegula - Jelena Ostapenko	0:2
WTA Doha
15.02.23	Jelena Ostapenko - Jessica Pegula	1:2
03.03.21	Jelena Ostapenko - Jessica Pegula	0:2
WTA Quebec City
16.09.15	Jelena Ostapenko - Jessica Pegula	2:1

Jessica Pegula - Jelena Ostapenko: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide