Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Estoril, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 23 July 2026, Thursday


	Luca Van Assche		Pablo Carreno-Busta

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.85	1.42
	2.90	1.41	Watch
	2.99	1.46
	2.71	1.44	Watch
	2.90	1.43	Watch
	2.87	1.42	Watch
	2.75	1.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↑ (2.32)	1.43 ↓ (1.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Van Assche
33.5%

Pablo Carreno-Busta
66.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.4%

60.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.5%

65.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Van Assche has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Luca Van Assche's form might have worsened.

Pablo Carreno-Busta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Pablo Carreno-Busta's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Van Assche than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (-1%)

Luca Van Assche - Pablo Carreno Busta Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (2.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Pablo Carreno-Busta will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Van Assche is ranked ATP: 78. Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 65.

Van Assche is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Carreno Busta has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Carreno Busta is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Van Assche won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Luca Van Assche - the odds 2.32 are the expected chance of winning is 39.43%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Van Assche
ATP Estoril
20.07.26	Frederico Ferreira Silva - Luca Van Assche	1:2 ✺
ATP Umag
15.07.26	Luca Van Assche - Titouan Droguet	1:2 ✺
13.07.26	Dusan Lajovic - Luca Van Assche	1:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
29.06.26	Luca Van Assche - Marton Fucsovics	van Assche L. Retired ✺
ATP Challenger
20.06.26	Sebastian Ofner - Luca Van Assche	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WLW?W
- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Estoril
21.07.26	Vilius Gaubas - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
ATP Umag
15.07.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	1:2 ✺
14.07.26	Matej Dodig - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
02.07.26	Rafael Jodar - Pablo Carreno-Busta	3:2 ✺
29.06.26	Denis Shapovalov - Pablo Carreno-Busta	Shapovalov D. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLWL?

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
19.10.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Luca Van Assche	1:2

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