Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Monte Carlo, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 10 April 2026, Friday


	Joao Fonseca		Alexander Zverev

	1	2
	2.5	1.53	Watch
	2.43	1.57	Watch
	2.5	1.6
	2.43	1.59	Watch
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.45	1.61	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↑ (2.4)	1.58 ↓ (1.58)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Joao Fonseca
39.2%

Alexander Zverev
60.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

60.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

55.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Joao Fonseca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Alexander Zverev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Joao Fonseca than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alexander Zverev than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.7%	0%	58.3%

Joao Fonseca - Alexander Zverev Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Fonseca will win (votes: 10 - 41.7%). Zverev will win (votes: 14 - 58.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Zverev: 38.6% – 78%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Fonseca (votes: 2 - 50%). Zverev (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Fonseca (1.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +2.5 Games - Fonseca (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Fonseca (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Zverev (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Fonseca is ranked ATP: 40. Zverev is ranked ATP: 3.

Currently, both players are in excellent shape.

Zverev may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Zverev is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Zverev will win today's game, with odds of 1.64.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Alexander Zverev - the odds 1.58 are the expected chance of winning is 60.26%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Joao Fonseca
ATP Monte Carlo
09.04.26	Matteo Berrettini - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
08.04.26	Joao Fonseca - Arthur Rinderknech	2:1 ✺
06.04.26	Joao Fonseca - Gabriel Diallo	2:0 ✺
ATP Miami
20.03.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Joao Fonseca	2:0 ✺
19.03.26	Fabian Marozsan - Joao Fonseca	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWWLW
- Alexander Zverev
ATP Monte Carlo
09.04.26	Zizou Bergs - Alexander Zverev	0:2 ✺
08.04.26	Christian Garin - Alexander Zverev	1:2 ✺
ATP Miami
27.03.26	Alexander Zverev - Jannik Sinner	0:2 ✺
26.03.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Alexander Zverev	0:2 ✺
24.03.26	Quentin Halys - Alexander Zverev	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WWLWW

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