Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Monte Carlo, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 9 April 2026, Thursday


	Matteo Berrettini		Joao Fonseca

	1	2
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.3	1.6	Watch
	2.28	1.7
	2.27	1.66	Watch
	2.3	1.62
	2.21	1.69	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (2.25)	1.65 ↓ (1.66)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Berrettini
42%

Joao Fonseca
58%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.4%

57.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.5%

53.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Berrettini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Joao Fonseca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Berrettini than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joao Fonseca than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36%	0%	64%

Matteo Berrettini - Joao Fonseca Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Berrettini will win (votes: 9 - 36%). Fonseca will win (votes: 16 - 64%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fonseca: 45.2% – 82.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Berrettini (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Fonseca (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 Games - Berrettini (2.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Berrettini (1.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Berrettini (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Fonseca (votes: 4 - 44.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Berrettini is ranked ATP: 90. Fonseca is ranked ATP: 40.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Berrettini may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Joao Fonseca - the odds 1.66 are the expected chance of winning is 57.56%, but this team recently wins 100% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Berrettini
ATP Monte Carlo
08.04.26	Daniil Medvedev - Matteo Berrettini	0:2 ✺
07.04.26	Roberto Bautista-Agut - Matteo Berrettini	Bautista-Agut R. Retired ✺
ATP Marrakech
31.03.26	Ignacio Buse - Matteo Berrettini	2:1 ✺
ATP Miami
22.03.26	Matteo Berrettini - Valentin Vacherot	0:2 ✺
20.03.26	Alexander Bublik - Matteo Berrettini	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 W?LLW
- Joao Fonseca
ATP Monte Carlo
08.04.26	Joao Fonseca - Arthur Rinderknech	2:1 ✺
06.04.26	Joao Fonseca - Gabriel Diallo	2:0 ✺
ATP Miami
20.03.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Joao Fonseca	2:0 ✺
19.03.26	Fabian Marozsan - Joao Fonseca	1:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
10.03.26	Joao Fonseca - Jannik Sinner	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWLWL

Matteo Berrettini - Joao Fonseca: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide