Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Basel, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 24 October 2025, Friday


	Joao Fonseca		Denis Shapovalov

	1	2
	1.8	2	Watch
			Watch
	1.75	2.04	Watch
	1.81	1.97
	1.74	2.03	Watch
			Watch
	1.71	2.17	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (1.82)	2.04 ↑ (2.03)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Joao Fonseca
53.7%

Denis Shapovalov
46.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.7%

47.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

46.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Joao Fonseca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Denis Shapovalov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joao Fonseca than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Denis Shapovalov than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Joao Fonseca - Denis Shapovalov Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Sets - Shapovalov (3.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Joao Fonseca will win (24 of 29 users predict this - 82.76%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.01% – 96.51%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Joao Fonseca will win (15 of 19 users predict this - 78.95%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Fonseca (votes: 15 - 75%). Shapovalov (votes: 5 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Fonseca is ranked ATP: 46. Shapovalov is ranked ATP: 23.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Shapovalov may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Joao Fonseca
ATP Basel
22.10.25	Jakub Mensik - Joao Fonseca	Fonseca J. walkover ✺
21.10.25	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
ATP Brussels
14.10.25	Joao Fonseca - Botic Van De Zandschulp	0:2 ✺
ATP Laver Cup
19.09.25	Flavio Cobolli - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group I
14.09.25	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Joao Fonseca	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 ?WLWW
- Denis Shapovalov
ATP Basel
23.10.25	Valentin Royer - Denis Shapovalov	0:2 ✺
21.10.25	Marcos Giron - Denis Shapovalov	1:2 ✺
21.10.25	Sebastian Baez - Denis Shapovalov	Canceled ✺
ATP Stockholm
18.10.25	Denis Shapovalov - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
17.10.25	Elias Ymer - Denis Shapovalov	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WW?LW

Joao Fonseca - Denis Shapovalov: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide