Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Miami (USA), hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 22 March 2025, Saturday


	Joao Fonseca		Ugo Humbert

	1	2
	2.2	1.67	Watch
	2.2	1.65	Watch
	2.29	1.63	Watch
	2.24	1.64	Watch
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.24	1.66	Watch
	2.29	1.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (2.01)	1.64 ↓ (1.8)

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Joao Fonseca
42.2%

Ugo Humbert
57.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.2%

52.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Joao Fonseca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Ugo Humbert has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Joao Fonseca than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Joao Fonseca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ugo Humbert than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ugo Humbert, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73%	0%	27%

Joao Fonseca - Ugo Humbert Predictions

Users Predictions: 35 users predict this event. Fonseca will win (votes: 27 - 77.1%). Humbert will win (votes: 8 - 22.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fonseca: 63.2% – 91%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Fonseca is ranked ATP: 60. Humbert is ranked ATP: 20.

Fonseca in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Humbert is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Fonseca could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both players are almost equal.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Fonseca won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Joao Fonseca
ATP Miami
20.03.25	Joao Fonseca - Learner Tien	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
16.03.25	Alexander Bublik - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
15.03.25	Joao Fonseca - Kei Nishikori	2:0 ✺
14.03.25	Hugo Gaston - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
13.03.25	Joao Fonseca - Jan-Lennard Struff	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWWWW
- Ugo Humbert
ATP Indian Wells
09.03.25	Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune - Ugo Humbert	2:1 ✺
07.03.25	Kei Nishikori - Ugo Humbert	0:2 ✺
ATP Dubai
26.02.25	Tallon Griekspoor - Ugo Humbert	2:1 ✺
25.02.25	Jiri Lehecka - Ugo Humbert	0:2 ✺
ATP Doha
18.02.25	Ugo Humbert - Nuno Borges	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWLW?

Latest Head to Head

Davis Cup World Group
01.02.25	Ugo Humbert - Joao Fonseca	2:0

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