Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Miami (USA), hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 20 March 2025, Thursday


	Joao Fonseca		Learner Tien

	1	2
	1.33	3.4	Watch
	1.34	3.2	Watch
	1.33	3.35	Watch
	1.34	3.24	Watch
	1.33	3.3	Watch
	1.34	3.31	Watch
	1.33	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.46)	3.31 ↑ (2.75)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Joao Fonseca
71.3%

Learner Tien
28.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.4%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.6%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Joao Fonseca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Joao Fonseca's performance.

Learner Tien has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Learner Tien might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joao Fonseca than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Learner Tien than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.5%	0%	38.5%

Joao Fonseca - Learner Tien Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Fonseca will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Tien will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fonseca: 35% – 88%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Fonseca is ranked ATP: 60. Tien is ranked ATP: 66.

Fonseca in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Tien is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Fonseca could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Fonseca is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Fonseca to win the game is with odds 1.36.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Fonseca won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9:5 (average 2.3:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Joao Fonseca - the odds 1.46 are the expected chance of winning is 65.38%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Joao Fonseca
ATP Challenger
16.03.25	Alexander Bublik - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
15.03.25	Joao Fonseca - Kei Nishikori	2:0 ✺
14.03.25	Hugo Gaston - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
13.03.25	Joao Fonseca - Jan-Lennard Struff	2:1 ✺
12.03.25	Pavel Kotov - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWWWW
- Learner Tien
ATP Indian Wells
07.03.25	Mariano Navone - Learner Tien	2:0 ✺
ATP Acapulco
27.02.25	Learner Tien - Tomas Machac	0:2 ✺
26.02.25	Alexander Zverev - Learner Tien	0:2 ✺
24.02.25	Learner Tien - Cameron Norrie	2:0 ✺
23.02.25	Learner Tien - Dusan Lajovic	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Next Gen Finals
22.12.24	Joao Fonseca - Learner Tien	3:1
19.12.24	Learner Tien - Joao Fonseca	1:3
Boys Singles US Open
09.09.23	Joao Fonseca - Learner Tien	2:1
Boys Singles French Open
08.06.23	Joao Fonseca - Learner Tien	1:2

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