Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Beijing, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 1 October 2026, Thursday


	Juncheng Shang		Sebastian Baez

	1	2
	1.62	2.3	Watch
	1.62	2.25
	1.62	2.26	Watch
	1.63	2.21	Watch
	1.56	2.4
	1.63	2.32	Watch
	1.6	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.67)	2.28 ↑ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Juncheng Shang
58.6%

Sebastian Baez
41.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.8%

43.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.6%

46.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Juncheng Shang has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Sebastian Baez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juncheng Shang than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	0%	62.5%

Juncheng Shang - Sebastian Baez Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Shang will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Baez will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Shang (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Shang is ranked ATP: 250., and Baez is ranked ATP: 51..

Neither player has been performing at its best in recent fixtures.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Juncheng Shang
ATP Chengdu
24.09.26	Juncheng Shang - Adrian Mannarino	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
31.08.26	Juncheng Shang - Marco Trungelliti	2:3 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
14.08.26	Juncheng Shang - Lorenzo Sonego	0:2 ✺
ATP Montreal
06.08.26	Luciano Darderi - Juncheng Shang	2:1 ✺
04.08.26	Juncheng Shang - Andrey Rublev	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 LLLLW
- Sebastian Baez
ATP Chengdu
23.09.26	Sebastian Baez - Jenson Brooksby	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
31.08.26	Brandon Nakashima - Sebastian Baez	3:0 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
26.08.26	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Sebastian Baez	Baez S. Retired ✺
25.08.26	Hugo Grenier - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
23.08.26	Sebastian Baez - Hubert Hurkacz	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LL?WL

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