Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 13 May 2025, Tuesday


	Tommy Paul		Alex De Minaur

	1	2
	2.5	1.53	Watch
	2.45	1.53	Watch
	2.55	1.53	Watch
	2.66	1.54
	2.48	1.54	Watch
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.49	1.54	Watch
	2.55	1.53
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↑ (2.44)	1.54 ↓ (1.58)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tommy Paul
38%

Alex De Minaur
62%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.2%

60.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.9%

65.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tommy Paul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Alex De Minaur has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tommy Paul than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex De Minaur than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Tommy Paul - Alex De Minaur Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Paul will win (votes: 9 - 50%). De Minaur will win (votes: 9 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paul: 26.9% – 73.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -4 Games - De Minaur (2.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Alex De Minaur will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. De Minaur (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Paul is ranked ATP: 12. De Minaur is ranked ATP: 8.

At the moment, both players are looking strong and ready to play.

De Minaur is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that De Minaur will win today's game, with odds of 1.57.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paul won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 3:10. (average 0.6:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tommy Paul
ATP Roma
12.05.25	Tommy Paul - Tomas Machac	2:1 ✺
10.05.25	Tommy Paul - Roberto Bautista-Agut	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
30.04.25	Jack Draper - Tommy Paul	2:0 ✺
29.04.25	Karen Khachanov - Tommy Paul	1:2 ✺
26.04.25	Joao Fonseca - Tommy Paul	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WWLWW
- Alex De Minaur
ATP Roma
12.05.25	Hugo Dellien - Alex De Minaur	0:2 ✺
10.05.25	Luca Nardi - Alex De Minaur	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
30.04.25	Alex De Minaur - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
29.04.25	Alex De Minaur - Denis Shapovalov	2:0 ✺
26.04.25	Alex De Minaur - Lorenzo Sonego	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Los Cabos
03.08.23	Alex De Minaur - Tommy Paul	2:1
ATP Acapulco
04.03.23	Tommy Paul - Alex De Minaur	1:2
ATP Eastbourne
23.06.22	Alex De Minaur - Tommy Paul	2:1
ATP Roma
11.05.22	Alex De Minaur - Tommy Paul	2:0
ATP Indian Wells
15.03.22	Alex De Minaur - Tommy Paul	2:0

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