Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Guangzhou, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 23 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Guangzhou 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Keegan Smith		Tristan Schoolkate

	1	2
			Watch
	2.30	1.55
	2.3	1.52	Watch
	2.44	1.5	Watch
	2.35	1.6
	2.3	1.55	Watch
	2.3	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (2.13)	1.54 ↓ (1.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 25.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Keegan Smith
39.7%

Tristan Schoolkate
60.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

43%

57%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36%

64%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Keegan Smith has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Tristan Schoolkate has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Keegan Smith than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tristan Schoolkate than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Keegan Smith - Tristan Schoolkate Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Smith is ranked ATP: 196., and Schoolkate is ranked ATP: 169..

Smith has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Schoolkate has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Smith may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have fairly balanced chances of victory.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Last Results with these Odds

Tristan Schoolkate - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 56.95%, but this team recently wins 90% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Keegan Smith
ATP Challenger
22.10.26	Keegan Smith - Fajing Sun	2:1 ✺
20.10.26	Keegan Smith - Max Purcell	2:0 ✺
16.10.26	Martin Landaluce - Keegan Smith	2:1 ✺
14.10.26	Keegan Smith - Vit Kopriva	2:1 ✺
13.10.26	Stefanos Sakellaridis - Keegan Smith	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 WWLWW
- Tristan Schoolkate
ATP Challenger
22.10.26	Cruz Hewitt - Tristan Schoolkate	Schoolkate T. Walkover ✺
20.10.26	Sergey Fomin - Tristan Schoolkate	1:2 ✺
14.10.26	Luka Pavlovic - Tristan Schoolkate	2:0 ✺
ATP Shanghai
05.10.26	Dane Sweeny - Tristan Schoolkate	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
01.10.26	Harold Mayot - Tristan Schoolkate	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 ?WLLL

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Keegan Smith
ATP Challenger
26.10.26	Yu Hsiou Hsu - Keegan Smith	✺
- Tristan Schoolkate
ATP Challenger
26.10.26	Tristan Schoolkate - Masamichi Imamura	✺

Keegan Smith - Tristan Schoolkate: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide