Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Geneva, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 22 May 2026, Friday


	Learner Tien		Alexander Bublik

	1	2
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.19	1.65	Watch
	2.27	1.71
	2.24	1.68	Watch
	2.2	1.67
	2.23	1.69	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (2.15)	1.67 ↓ (1.71)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Learner Tien
42.7%

Alexander Bublik
57.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.4%

55.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.6%

57.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Learner Tien has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Alexander Bublik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Learner Tien than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexander Bublik than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.3%	0%	64.7%

Learner Tien - Alexander Bublik Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Tien will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%). Bublik will win (votes: 11 - 64.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bublik: 42% – 87.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Bublik (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Tien is ranked ATP: 20. Bublik is ranked ATP: 10.

Tien is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Bublik has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Tien may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Tien won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Learner Tien - the odds 2.15 are the expected chance of winning is 44.39%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Learner Tien
ATP Geneva
21.05.26	Alex Michelsen - Learner Tien	1:2 ✺
20.05.26	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Learner Tien	0:2 ✺
ATP Roma
12.05.26	Rafael Jodar - Learner Tien	2:0 ✺
10.05.26	Learner Tien - Alexander Bublik	2:1 ✺
08.05.26	Learner Tien - Damir Dzumhur	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WWLWW
- Alexander Bublik
ATP Geneva
21.05.26	Arthur Rinderknech - Alexander Bublik	1:2 ✺
20.05.26	Edas Butvilas - Alexander Bublik	0:2 ✺
ATP Roma
10.05.26	Learner Tien - Alexander Bublik	2:1 ✺
08.05.26	Sebastian Baez - Alexander Bublik	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
25.04.26	Alexander Bublik - Stefanos Tsitsipas	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roma
10.05.26	Learner Tien - Alexander Bublik	2:1

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