Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 8 May 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 11


	Sebastian Baez		Alexander Bublik

	1	2
	2.2	1.67	Watch
	2.2	1.65	Watch
	2.31	1.75
	2.24	1.65	Watch
	2.2	1.67	Watch
	2.19	1.71	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↑ (1.76)	1.68 ↓ (1.91)

The best margin for this event is 0.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Baez
43.1%

Alexander Bublik
56.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52%

48%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.1%

52.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Baez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sebastian Baez's form might have worsened.

Alexander Bublik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alexander Bublik's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alexander Bublik than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.7%	0%	58.3%

Sebastian Baez - Alexander Bublik Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Baez will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Bublik will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bublik: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Baez is ranked ATP: 65. Bublik is ranked ATP: 11.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Bublik may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Bublik might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Baez won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Baez
ATP Roma
06.05.26	Jenson Brooksby - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
23.04.26	Vilius Gaubas - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
ATP Barcelona
14.04.26	Tomas Machac - Sebastian Baez	2:1 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
07.04.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
06.04.26	Sebastian Baez - Stanislas Wawrinka	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 WLLLW
- Alexander Bublik
ATP Madrid
25.04.26	Alexander Bublik - Stefanos Tsitsipas	0:2 ✺
ATP Munich
14.04.26	Alex Molcan - Alexander Bublik	2:0 ✺
13.04.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Alexander Bublik	1:2
ATP Monte Carlo
10.04.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alexander Bublik	2:0 ✺
09.04.26	Jiri Lehecka - Alexander Bublik	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Miami
19.03.25	Alexander Bublik - Sebastian Baez	2:0

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