Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN
Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Brazil	ESPN
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Canada	RDS App
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
Hungary	HBO Max
Mexico	ESPN
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Peru	ESPN
Poland	HBO Max
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max
United-kingdom	Discovery+
Usa	ESPN USA
Venezuela	ESPN


	Learner Tien		Marcos Giron

	1	2
	1.5	2.63	Watch
	1.51	2.6	Watch
	1.52	2.54	Watch
	1.53	2.5
	1.5	2.63	Watch
	1.53	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.56)	2.57 ↑ (2.38)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Learner Tien
62.9%

Marcos Giron
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.4%

39.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.3%

42.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Learner Tien has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Marcos Giron has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Learner Tien than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Learner Tien that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marcos Giron than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Marcos Giron could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	0%	28.6%

Learner Tien - Marcos Giron Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Tien will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Giron will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 38.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Learner Tien will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Tien is ranked ATP: 26. Giron is ranked ATP: 60.

Tien is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Giron has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Tien may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Tien is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Tien won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Learner Tien
ATP Brisbane
06.01.26	Alex Michelsen - Learner Tien	2:0 ✺
04.01.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Learner Tien	0:2 ✺
ATP Next Gen Finals
21.12.25	Learner Tien - Alexander Blockx	3:0 ✺
20.12.25	Learner Tien - Nishesh Basavareddy	3:0 ✺
19.12.25	Learner Tien - Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LWWWW
- Marcos Giron
ATP Auckland
15.01.26	Sebastian Baez - Marcos Giron	2:0 ✺
14.01.26	Luciano Darderi - Marcos Giron	1:2 ✺
13.01.26	Marcos Giron - Alex Michelsen	2:0 ✺
12.01.26	Alexandre Muller - Marcos Giron	0:2 ✺
ATP Hong Kong
10.01.26	Marcos Giron - Alexander Bublik	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Madrid
24.04.25	Learner Tien - Marcos Giron	1:2

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