Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Finals - Turin, hard

Date: 13 November 2025, Thursday


	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia		Lorenzo Musetti

	1	2
	1.13	6	Watch
			Watch
	1.13	6	Watch
	1.14	5.99
	1.13	5.92	Watch
	1.15	6.35	Watch
	1.13	6.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.14 ↑ (1.13)	6.05 ↑ (5.92)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
84.2%

Lorenzo Musetti
15.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

84%

16%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Lorenzo Musetti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.4%	0%	17.6%

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Lorenzo Musetti Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Alcaraz Garfia will win (votes: 14 - 82.4%). Musetti will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alcaraz Garfia: 64.3% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Alcaraz Garfia (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Musetti (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 18.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 20 Games - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 1. Musetti is ranked ATP: 9.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alcaraz Garfia won 4.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Musetti may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Alcaraz Garfia won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:4. (average 1.8:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
ATP World Tour Finals
11.11.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Taylor Harry Fritz	2:1 ✺
11.11.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Novak Djokovic	N/A
09.11.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alex De Minaur	2:0 ✺
ATP Paris
28.10.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Cameron Norrie	1:2 ✺
Exhibition Six Kings Slam Men
18.10.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Jannik Sinner	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 W?WLL
- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP World Tour Finals
11.11.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Alex De Minaur	2:1 ✺
10.11.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Taylor Harry Fritz	0:2 ✺
ATP Athens
08.11.25	Novak Djokovic - Lorenzo Musetti	2:1 ✺
07.11.25	Sebastian Korda - Lorenzo Musetti	1:2 ✺
06.11.25	Alexandre Muller - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roland Garros
06.06.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	Musetti L. retired
ATP Roma
16.05.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0
ATP Monte Carlo
13.04.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	1:2
ATP Miami
26.03.24	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0
ATP Beijing
01.10.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0
ATP Roland Garros
04.06.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Lorenzo Musetti	3:0
ATP Hamburg
24.07.22	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Lorenzo Musetti	1:2

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