Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 30 August 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY) 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Belgium	17:00	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia And Herzegovina	17:00	HBO Max
Bulgaria	18:00	HBO Max
Croatia	17:00	HBO Max
Czech Republic	17:00	HBO Max
Denmark	17:00	HBO Max
Finland	18:00	HBO Max
France	17:00	HBO Max
Hungary	17:00	HBO Max
Moldova	18:00	HBO Max
Montenegro	17:00	HBO Max
Netherlands	17:00	HBO Max
North Macedonia	17:00	HBO Max
Norway	17:00	HBO Max
Poland	17:00	HBO Max
Romania	18:00	HBO Max
Serbia	17:00	HBO Max
Slovenia	17:00	HBO Max
Spain	17:00	HBO Max
Sweden	17:00	HBO Max


	Lorenzo Musetti		Flavio Cobolli

	1	2
	1.36	3.2	Watch
	1.35	3.1
	1.34	3.16
	1.37	3.38
	1.35	3.18	Watch
	1.36	3.1
	1.36	3.2	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.51)	3.19 ↑ (2.6)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Musetti
70.2%

Flavio Cobolli
29.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

63.2%

36.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.3%

35.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Musetti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lorenzo Musetti's performance.

Flavio Cobolli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Flavio Cobolli might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Musetti than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lorenzo Musetti that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Flavio Cobolli than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Flavio Cobolli could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.2%	0%	18.7%

Lorenzo Musetti - Flavio Cobolli Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Sets - Musetti (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lorenzo Musetti will win (24 of 30 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.69% – 94.31%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lorenzo Musetti will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Musetti (votes: 8 - 88.9%). Cobolli (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Musetti is ranked ATP: 10. Cobolli is ranked ATP: 26.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Musetti is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Musetti won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP US Open
28.08.25	Lorenzo Musetti - David Goffin	3:0 ✺
26.08.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	3:1 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
09.08.25	Benjamin Bonzi - Lorenzo Musetti	2:1 ✺
ATP Toronto
31.07.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Alex Michelsen	1:2 ✺
29.07.25	Lorenzo Musetti - James Duckworth	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WWLLW
- Flavio Cobolli
ATP US Open
28.08.25	Jenson Brooksby - Flavio Cobolli	2:3 ✺
25.08.25	Francesco Passaro - Flavio Cobolli	2:3 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
09.08.25	Terence Atmane - Flavio Cobolli	2:1 ✺
ATP Toronto
03.08.25	Flavio Cobolli - Ben Shelton	1:2 ✺
01.08.25	Flavio Cobolli - Fabian Marozsan	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Exhibition Italian Championship Men
22.06.20	Lorenzo Musetti - Flavio Cobolli	2:0

Lorenzo Musetti - Flavio Cobolli