Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Winston-Salem (USA), hard - Final

Date: 24 August 2024, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 2, Premier Sport 3
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo
France	Eurosport 2
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top event
Hungary	Match 4
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Poland	Polsat Sport 2, Polsat Sport Premium 2
Portugal	Sport TV7
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Tennis


	Lorenzo Sonego		Alex Michelsen

	1	2
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.5	1.53
	2.4	1.55	Watch
	2.66	1.54
	2.58	1.55	Watch
	2.5	1.53	Watch
	2.43	1.57	Watch
	2.4	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2.1)	1.55 ↓ (1.73)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Sonego
38.4%

Alex Michelsen
61.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

54.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

56.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Sonego has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lorenzo Sonego's form might have worsened.

Alex Michelsen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alex Michelsen's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Sonego than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lorenzo Sonego, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex Michelsen than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alex Michelsen, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Lorenzo Sonego - Alex Michelsen Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Sonego will win (votes: 7 - 25.9%). Michelsen will win (votes: 20 - 74.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Michelsen: 57.6% – 90.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Sonego is ranked ATP: 58. Michelsen is ranked ATP: 52.

Sonego is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Michelsen is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Michelsen will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Sonego won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Sonego
ATP Winston-Salem
23.08.24	David Goffin - Lorenzo Sonego	0:2 ✺
22.08.24	Lorenzo Sonego - Juncheng Shang	Sonego L. walkover ✺
22.08.24	Pavel Kotov - Lorenzo Sonego	0:2 ✺
20.08.24	Lorenzo Sonego - Dominic Stephan Stricker	2:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
12.08.24	Lorenzo Sonego - Jaume Munar	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 W?WWL
- Alex Michelsen
ATP Winston-Salem
23.08.24	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Alex Michelsen	Carreno-Busta P. retired ✺
22.08.24	Alex Michelsen - Christopher Eubanks	2:1 ✺
21.08.24	Zizou Bergs - Alex Michelsen	0:2 ✺
20.08.24	Marton Fucsovics - Alex Michelsen	0:2 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
14.08.24	Jannik Sinner - Alex Michelsen	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 ?WWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
01.05.24	Alex Michelsen - Lorenzo Sonego	1:2

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