Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Guangzhou 2, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 8 September 2025, Monday


	Yuta Shimizu		Juan Manuel Cerundolo

	1	2
	1.83	1.83	Watch
	1.87	1.83	Watch
	1.85	1.8	Watch
	2.04	1.8
	2.24	1.58	Watch
	1.88	1.84	Watch
	2.13	1.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↓ (2.15)	1.76 ↑ (1.62)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Yuta Shimizu
47.1%

Juan Manuel Cerundolo
52.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

57.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.6%

60.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Yuta Shimizu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Juan Manuel Cerundolo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yuta Shimizu than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Yuta Shimizu that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juan Manuel Cerundolo than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Juan Manuel Cerundolo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
65%	0%	35%

Yuta Shimizu - Juan Manuel Cerundolo Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Shimizu will win (votes: 12 - 63.2%). Cerundolo will win (votes: 7 - 36.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shimizu: 41.5% – 84.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -4.5 Games - Cerundolo (2.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 Sets - Cerundolo (2.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Yuta Shimizu will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Shimizu (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Cerundolo (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Shimizu is ranked ATP: 223. Cerundolo is ranked ATP: 88.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Cerundolo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Shimizu won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Yuta Shimizu - the odds 2.15 are the expected chance of winning is 42.93%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo - the odds 1.62 are the expected chance of winning is 57.07%, but this team recently wins 100% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Yuta Shimizu
ATP Challenger
02.09.25	Yuta Shimizu - Sho Shimabukuro	Canceled ✺
ATP US Open
22.08.25	Yuta Shimizu - Martin Damm	0:2 ✺
21.08.25	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Yuta Shimizu	0:2 ✺
19.08.25	Yuta Shimizu - Sho Shimabukuro	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
23.07.25	Andres Martin - Yuta Shimizu	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 ?LWWL
- Juan Manuel Cerundolo
ATP US Open
21.08.25	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Yuta Shimizu	0:2 ✺
19.08.25	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Calvin Hemery	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
15.08.25	Stanislas Wawrinka - Juan Manuel Cerundolo	2:0 ✺
14.08.25	Roman Andres Burruchaga - Juan Manuel Cerundolo	1:2 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
05.08.25	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Chak Lam Coleman Wong	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP US Open
21.08.25	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Yuta Shimizu	0:2

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