Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Segovia, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 25 July 2026, Saturday


	Luka Pavlovic		Keegan Smith

	1	2
			Watch
	1.95	1.75
	2.02	1.75	Watch
	2.08	1.82
	1.96	1.75	Watch
	2.05	1.79	Watch
	1.95	1.74	Watch
	1.95	1.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.69)	1.77 ↓ (2.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luka Pavlovic
47%

Keegan Smith
53%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.6%

45.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.8%

48.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luka Pavlovic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Luka Pavlovic's form might have worsened.

Keegan Smith has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Keegan Smith's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luka Pavlovic than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Keegan Smith than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Luka Pavlovic - Keegan Smith Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Pavlovic is ranked ATP: 278. Smith is ranked ATP: 209.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Smith may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Luka Pavlovic - the odds 1.69 are the expected chance of winning is 54.57%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luka Pavlovic
ATP Challenger
24.07.26	Luka Pavlovic - Mert Alkaya	2:0 ✺
22.07.26	Yi Zhou - Luka Pavlovic	0:2 ✺
21.07.26	Takuya Kumasaka - Luka Pavlovic	1:2 ✺
14.07.26	Yanki Erel - Luka Pavlovic	2:0 ✺
09.07.26	Titouan Droguet - Luka Pavlovic	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWWLL
- Keegan Smith
ATP Challenger
24.07.26	Paul Inchauspe - Keegan Smith	1:2 ✺
22.07.26	Mario Gonzalez Fernandez - Keegan Smith	0:2 ✺
21.07.26	Digvijay Pratap Singh - Keegan Smith	0:2 ✺
07.07.26	Niels McDonald - Keegan Smith	2:0 ✺
05.07.26	Keegan Smith - Zsombor Piros	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWWLL

Luka Pavlovic - Keegan Smith: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide