Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Shanghai - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 29 September 2025, Monday


	Rei Sakamoto		Brandon Holt

	1	2
			Watch
	1.85	1.85	Watch
	1.84	2
	1.76	2.06	Watch
	1.9	1.9	Watch
	2.05	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↓ (2.05)	1.89 ↑ (1.65)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rei Sakamoto
50.2%

Brandon Holt
49.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

55.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.9%

58.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rei Sakamoto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rei Sakamoto's performance.

Brandon Holt has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Brandon Holt might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rei Sakamoto than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rei Sakamoto that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brandon Holt than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Brandon Holt could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Rei Sakamoto - Brandon Holt Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Sakamoto will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Holt will win (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Sakamoto is ranked ATP: 190. Holt is ranked ATP: 114.

Recent performances by Sakamoto have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Holt's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Sakamoto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Rei Sakamoto - the odds 2.05 are the expected chance of winning is 44.59%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Brandon Holt - the odds 1.65 are the expected chance of winning is 55.41%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rei Sakamoto
ATP Tokyo
22.09.25	Aleksandar Vukic - Rei Sakamoto	2:0 ✺
22.09.25	Rei Sakamoto - Adam Walton	2:0 ✺
ATP Chengdu
16.09.25	Rei Sakamoto - Nikoloz Basilashvili	1:2 ✺
ATP US Open
21.08.25	Rei Sakamoto - Ignacio Buse	1:2 ✺
19.08.25	Tyler Zink - Rei Sakamoto	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LWLLW
- Brandon Holt
ATP Challenger
24.09.25	Lloyd Harris - Brandon Holt	2:0 ✺
ATP Hangzhou
17.09.25	Rinky Hijikata - Brandon Holt	2:0 ✺
16.09.25	Chen Ye - Brandon Holt	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
26.08.25	Nuno Borges - Brandon Holt	3:0 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
17.08.25	Mackenzie McDonald - Brandon Holt	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLWLL

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