Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lisbon, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 21 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Lisbon 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Marco Trungelliti		Carlo Alberto Caniato

	1	2
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.53	2.35
	1.6	2.15	Watch
	1.55	2.29	Watch
	1.59	2.4
	1.55	2.3	Watch
	1.6	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↑ (1.33)	2.27 ↓ (3.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Marco Trungelliti
59.1%

Carlo Alberto Caniato
40.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

69.4%

30.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.8%

34.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marco Trungelliti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Marco Trungelliti's form might have worsened.

Carlo Alberto Caniato has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Carlo Alberto Caniato's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marco Trungelliti than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Marco Trungelliti, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlo Alberto Caniato than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Carlo Alberto Caniato, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Marco Trungelliti - Carlo Alberto Caniato Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Trungelliti will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Caniato will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Trungelliti (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

Trungelliti is ranked ATP: 90., and Caniato is ranked ATP: 314..

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Trungelliti may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Trungelliti holding a narrow advantage.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marco Trungelliti
ATP Challenger
20.10.26	Marco Trungelliti - Tiago Pereira	2:1 ✺
16.10.26	Marco Trungelliti - Francesco Passaro	1:2 ✺
15.10.26	Marco Trungelliti - Milos Karol	2:0 ✺
13.10.26	Marco Trungelliti - Thiago Monteiro	2:1 ✺
ATP Shanghai
07.10.26	Marco Trungelliti - Rei Sakamoto	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLWWL
- Carlo Alberto Caniato
ATP Challenger
19.10.26	Diogo Morais - Carlo Alberto Caniato	0:2 ✺
15.10.26	Carlo Alberto Caniato - Marvin Moeller	1:2 ✺
13.10.26	Carlo Alberto Caniato - Daniel Siniakov	2:0 ✺
08.10.26	Carlo Alberto Caniato - Francesco Passaro	1:2 ✺
06.10.26	Carlo Alberto Caniato - Max Wiskandt	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLWLW

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marco Trungelliti
ATP Challenger
24.10.26	Marco Trungelliti - Alexander Ritschard	✺

Marco Trungelliti - Carlo Alberto Caniato: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide