Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cagliari, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 30 April 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Cagliari 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Mariano Navone		Matteo Berrettini

	1	2
	1.62	2.2	Watch
	1.65	2.1	Watch
	1.62	2.15	Watch
	1.7	2.31
	1.58	2.26	Watch
	1.67	2.1	Watch
	1.65	2.11	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.85)	2.18 ↑ (1.85)

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mariano Navone
57%

Matteo Berrettini
43%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.7%

53.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mariano Navone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mariano Navone's performance.

Matteo Berrettini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Matteo Berrettini might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mariano Navone than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mariano Navone that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Berrettini than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Matteo Berrettini could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Mariano Navone - Matteo Berrettini Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Navone will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Berrettini will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Navone is ranked ATP: 45. Berrettini is ranked ATP: 92.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Berrettini may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Navone won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mariano Navone
ATP Madrid
25.04.26	Mariano Navone - Alexander Zverev	1:2 ✺
23.04.26	Nuno Borges - Mariano Navone	0:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
14.04.26	Mariano Navone - Andrey Rublev	0:2 ✺
ATP Bucharest
05.04.26	Mariano Navone - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:1 ✺
04.04.26	Mariano Navone - Botic Van De Zandschulp	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWLWW
- Matteo Berrettini
ATP Challenger
28.04.26	Patrick Kypson - Matteo Berrettini	1:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
22.04.26	Dino Prizmic - Matteo Berrettini	2:0 ✺
22.04.26	Raphael Collignon - Matteo Berrettini	Canceled ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
09.04.26	Matteo Berrettini - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
08.04.26	Daniil Medvedev - Matteo Berrettini	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WL?LW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Monte Carlo
07.04.25	Mariano Navone - Matteo Berrettini	0:2
ATP Marrakech
06.04.24	Matteo Berrettini - Mariano Navone	2:1

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Berrettini
ATP Vienna
29.10.26	Flavio Cobolli - Matteo Berrettini	✺

Mariano Navone - Matteo Berrettini