Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Monte Carlo, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 8 April 2026, Wednesday


	Daniil Medvedev		Matteo Berrettini

	1	2
	1.36	3.2	Watch
			Watch
	1.38	3.1
	1.37	3.32
	1.37	3.09	Watch
	1.4	2.9	Watch
	1.4	3.08	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↑ (1.34)	3.12 ↓ (3.21)

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniil Medvedev
69.3%

Matteo Berrettini
30.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.5%

29.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.6%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniil Medvedev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Matteo Berrettini has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniil Medvedev than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Berrettini than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.2%	0%	15.8%

Daniil Medvedev - Matteo Berrettini Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +4 Games - Berrettini (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Daniil Medvedev will win (15 of 17 users predict this - 88.24%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.93% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Daniil Medvedev will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Medvedev (votes: 3 - 75%). Berrettini (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Medvedev is ranked ATP: 10. Berrettini is ranked ATP: 90.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Berrettini may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Medvedev will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Medvedev won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 1.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniil Medvedev
ATP Miami
23.03.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Daniil Medvedev	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	Rei Sakamoto - Daniil Medvedev	1:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
15.03.26	Daniil Medvedev - Jannik Sinner	0:2 ✺
14.03.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Daniil Medvedev	0:2 ✺
12.03.26	Jack Draper - Daniil Medvedev	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 LWLWW
- Matteo Berrettini
ATP Monte Carlo
07.04.26	Roberto Bautista-Agut - Matteo Berrettini	Bautista-Agut R. Retired ✺
ATP Marrakech
31.03.26	Ignacio Buse - Matteo Berrettini	2:1 ✺
ATP Miami
22.03.26	Matteo Berrettini - Valentin Vacherot	0:2 ✺
20.03.26	Alexander Bublik - Matteo Berrettini	0:2 ✺
19.03.26	Alexandre Muller - Matteo Berrettini	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 ?LLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Cup
05.01.22	Daniil Medvedev - Matteo Berrettini	2:1
ATP World Tour Finals
18.11.21	Daniil Medvedev - Matteo Berrettini	Canceled
ATP Cup
06.02.21	Daniil Medvedev - Matteo Berrettini	2:0
ATP Indian Wells
10.03.18	Daniil Medvedev - Matteo Berrettini	2:1

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