Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Beijing, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 1 October 2025, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Beijing 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Bulgaria	17:10	Max Sport 1
Germany	16:10	Sky Sport Tennis
Slovakia	16:10	Voyo
United Kingdom	15:10	Sky Sports Tennis


	Marta Kostyuk		Jessica Pegula

	1	2
	2.5	1.53	Watch
	2.36	1.6	Watch
	2.4	1.64
	3.16	1.38	Watch
	2.41	1.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↑ (2.3)	1.55 ↑ (1.52)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marta Kostyuk
37.7%

Jessica Pegula
62.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39.8%

60.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1%

64.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marta Kostyuk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Jessica Pegula has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marta Kostyuk than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jessica Pegula than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	0%	44.4%

Marta Kostyuk - Jessica Pegula Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Kostyuk will win (votes: 8 - 50%). Pegula will win (votes: 8 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kostyuk: 25.5% – 74.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +3.5 Games - Kostyuk (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Marta Kostyuk will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Kostyuk (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Kostyuk is ranked WTA: 28. Pegula is ranked WTA: 7.

Kostyuk is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Pegula has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Kostyuk may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Pegula could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Kostyuk won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 0.8:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marta Kostyuk
WTA Beijing
29.09.25	Aliaksandra Sasnovich - Marta Kostyuk	0:2 ✺
27.09.25	Ella Seidel - Marta Kostyuk	0:2 ✺
WTA Billie Jean King Cup World Group
19.09.25	Elisabaetta Cocciaretto - Marta Kostyuk	0:2 ✺
17.09.25	Jessica Bouzas Maneiro - Marta Kostyuk	0:2 ✺
WTA US Open
01.09.25	Marta Kostyuk - Karolina Muchova	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWWWL
- Jessica Pegula
WTA Beijing
29.09.25	Emma Raducanu - Jessica Pegula	1:2 ✺
27.09.25	Ajla Tomljanovic - Jessica Pegula	0:2 ✺
WTA Billie Jean King Cup World Group
21.09.25	Jasmine Paolini - Jessica Pegula	2:0 ✺
20.09.25	Jessica Pegula - Katie Boulter	2:1 ✺
18.09.25	Elena Rybakina - Jessica Pegula	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

WTA Miami
24.03.25	Marta Kostyuk - Jessica Pegula	0:2
WTA San Diego
02.03.24	Jessica Pegula - Marta Kostyuk	0:2
WTA Australian Open
19.01.23	Jessica Pegula - Marta Kostyuk	2:0
WTA Cincinnati
17.08.22	Jessica Pegula - Marta Kostyuk	2:1

Marta Kostyuk - Jessica Pegula