Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Shanghai - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 5 October 2026, Monday


	Martin Damm		Pavel Kotov

	1	2
			Watch
	1.44	2.65
	1.43	2.6	Watch
	1.45	2.67	Watch
	1.42	2.75
	1.4	2.73	Watch
	1.44	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↑ (1.36)	2.68 ↓ (2.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Martin Damm
65.2%

Pavel Kotov
34.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.7%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.5%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Martin Damm has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Pavel Kotov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Martin Damm than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pavel Kotov than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Martin Damm - Pavel Kotov Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +3 Games - Kotov (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Kotov (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Damm is ranked ATP: 103., and Kotov is ranked ATP: 182..

Recent results have been tough for Damm (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Performances by Kotov have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Damm may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this matchup, Damm is considered the favorite to take the win.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Martin Damm
ATP Tokyo
27.09.26	Arthur Fils - Martin Damm	2:1 ✺
ATP Chengdu
26.09.26	Martin Damm - Hubert Hurkacz	1:2 ✺
24.09.26	Martin Damm - Shintaro Mochizuki	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
31.08.26	Martin Damm - Francis Tiafoe	2:3 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
26.08.26	Martin Damm - Fabian Marozsan	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLWLL
- Pavel Kotov
ATP Chengdu
23.09.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Pavel Kotov	2:0 ✺
22.09.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Pavel Kotov	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
20.09.26	Pavel Kotov - Marat Sharipov	0:2 ✺
19.09.26	Pavel Kotov - Bernard Tomic	2:0 ✺
18.09.26	Pavel Kotov - Rio Noguchi	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWLWW

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