Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Guangzhou 2, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday


	Pavel Kotov		Bernard Tomic

	1	2
	1.80	1.91	Watch
	1.70	2.05
	1.71	2.08
	1.71	2.05	Watch
	1.75	2.12
	1.67	2.05	Watch
	1.65	2.11
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.72)	2.05 ↑ (1.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pavel Kotov
54.5%

Bernard Tomic
45.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.7%

46.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.4%

50.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pavel Kotov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Bernard Tomic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pavel Kotov than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pavel Kotov that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bernard Tomic than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bernard Tomic could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Pavel Kotov - Bernard Tomic Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Kotov will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Kotov is ranked ATP: 221., and Tomic is ranked ATP: 185..

Both players are currently displaying solid and consistent form.

Kotov may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Last Results with these Odds

Pavel Kotov - the odds 1.72 are the expected chance of winning is 53.7%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Bernard Tomic - the odds 1.99 are the expected chance of winning is 46.3%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pavel Kotov
ATP Challenger
18.09.26	Pavel Kotov - Rio Noguchi	2:0 ✺
16.09.26	Pavel Kotov - Akira Santillan	2:0 ✺
15.09.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Pavel Kotov	0:2 ✺
12.09.26	Pavel Kotov - Marat Sharipov	0:2 ✺
11.09.26	Pavel Kotov - Alexis Galarneau	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWLW
- Bernard Tomic
ATP Challenger
18.09.26	Bernard Tomic - Alexandr Binda	2:0 ✺
17.09.26	Bernard Tomic - Jake Delaney	2:0 ✺
15.09.26	Bernard Tomic - Yuta Kikuchi	2:0 ✺
10.09.26	Bernard Tomic - Ilya Ivashka	1:2 ✺
08.09.26	Bernard Tomic - Akira Santillan	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWWLW

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