Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Braga, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 9 October 2026, Friday


	Marvin Moeller		Matej Dodig

	1	2
			Watch
	2.55	1.45
	2.60	1.48	Watch
	2.66	1.43	Watch
	2.70	1.45
	2.59	1.44	Watch
	2.45	1.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↑ (1.98)	1.45 ↓ (1.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marvin Moeller
35.9%

Matej Dodig
64.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.5%

53.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

59%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marvin Moeller has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Marvin Moeller's form might have worsened.

Matej Dodig has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Matej Dodig's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marvin Moeller than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Marvin Moeller, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matej Dodig than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Matej Dodig, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Marvin Moeller - Matej Dodig Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Dodig will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Dodig (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Moeller is ranked ATP: 239., and Dodig is ranked ATP: 174..

Moeller has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Dodig has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Moeller may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Moeller has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:0 (averaging 2:0 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Matej Dodig - the odds 1.72 are the expected chance of winning is 53.51%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marvin Moeller
ATP Challenger
08.10.26	Ryan Nijboer - Marvin Moeller	0:2 ✺
07.10.26	Marvin Moeller - Tiago Torres	2:0 ✺
26.09.26	Marvin Moeller - Luka Mikrut	1:2 ✺
25.09.26	Marvin Moeller - Dali Blanch	2:1 ✺
23.09.26	Marvin Moeller - Federico Arnaboldi	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWLWW
- Matej Dodig
ATP Challenger
08.10.26	Miguel Damas - Matej Dodig	0:2 ✺
07.10.26	Matej Dodig - Andrea Pellegrino	2:1 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
20.09.26	Daniel Altmaier - Matej Dodig	Canceled ✺
19.09.26	Alexander Zverev - Matej Dodig	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
12.09.26	Thiago Seyboth Wild - Matej Dodig	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WW?LL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
15.08.26	Matej Dodig - Marvin Moeller	0:2
ITF Tournaments
08.07.23	Marvin Moeller - Matej Dodig	2:0

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