Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Turin 2 (Italy), clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 17 May 2024, Friday

Referee: Fratta A. (Ita)


	Matteo Arnaldi		Fabio Fognini

	1	2
	1.33	3.25	Watch
	1.34	3
	1.35	3	Watch
	1.38	3.22
	1.38	3.22
	1.36	3	Watch
	1.29	3.43	Watch
	1.35	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.37)	3.13 ↑ (2.83)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
69.9%

Fabio Fognini
30.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.4%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.2%

29.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Fabio Fognini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fabio Fognini than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.9%	0%	7.1%

Matteo Arnaldi - Fabio Fognini Predictions

Users Predictions: Matteo Arnaldi will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

One and the other player get a very uncertain game.

Arnaldi could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Arnaldi is a favorite.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Roma
11.05.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Nicolas Jarry	0:2 ✺
09.05.24	Harold Mayot - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
09.05.24	Tomas Machac - Matteo Arnaldi	Canceled ✺
ATP Madrid
27.04.24	Daniil Medvedev - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
25.04.24	Christopher OConnell - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LW?LW
- Fabio Fognini
ATP Challenger
16.05.24	Fabio Fognini - Giulio Zeppieri	2:0 ✺
ATP Roma
10.05.24	Taylor Harry Fritz - Fabio Fognini	2:0 ✺
09.05.24	Daniel Evans - Fabio Fognini	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
01.05.24	Fabio Fognini - Federico Coria	Fognini F. retired ✺
18.04.24	Fabio Fognini - Stefano Napolitano	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLW?L

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