Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: French Open, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 5 June 2026, Friday

Location: Court Philippe-Chatrier (Paris)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Colombia	ESPN 3
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Denmark	6'eren, Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Finland	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
France	Eurosport 1
Germany	Eurosport 1
Hungary	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Italy	Eurosport 1
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Poland	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Portugal	Eurosport 1
Romania	Eurosport 1, HBO Max, Prima Sport 4
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	Eurosport 1, HBO Max, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	Eurosport 1, HBO Max, Kanal 9
Switzerland	RTS 2, RTS 2, SRF Info, SRF Info
Turkey	Eurosport 1
United-kingdom	HBO Max, TNT Sports 1, TNT Sports 4, TNT Sports Ultimate


	Matteo Arnaldi		Flavio Cobolli

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.95	1.40	Watch
	3.00	1.41
	3.14	1.41
	2.84	1.45
	2.90	1.40
	2.98	1.45	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.94 ↑ (2.92)	1.42 ↓ (1.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 38.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
32.6%

Flavio Cobolli
67.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.3%

66.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3%

57.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Flavio Cobolli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Matteo Arnaldi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flavio Cobolli than the current prediction. (-9.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Flavio Cobolli, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20.9%	0%	79.1%

Matteo Arnaldi - Flavio Cobolli Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cobolli (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +4.5 Games - Arnaldi (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Flavio Cobolli will win (33 of 41 users predict this - 80.49%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 92.62%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Arnaldi (votes: 1 - 50%). Cobolli (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Preview

Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 104. Cobolli is ranked ATP: 14.

Arnaldi is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Cobolli is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In this match, Cobolli is a strong favorite.

We predict that Cobolli will win today's game, with odds of 1.41.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arnaldi won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:7. (average 1.6:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Flavio Cobolli - the odds 1.46 are the expected chance of winning is 66.67%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Roland Garros
03.06.26	Matteo Berrettini - Matteo Arnaldi	Berrettini M. Retired ✺
01.06.26	Francis Tiafoe - Matteo Arnaldi	2:3 ✺
30.05.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Raphael Collignon	3:2 ✺
28.05.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Stefanos Tsitsipas	3:1 ✺
26.05.26	Tallon Griekspoor - Matteo Arnaldi	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 ?WWWW
- Flavio Cobolli
ATP Roland Garros
03.06.26	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Flavio Cobolli	1:3 ✺
01.06.26	Flavio Cobolli - Zachary Svajda	3:1 ✺
30.05.26	Flavio Cobolli - Learner Tien	3:0 ✺
28.05.26	Flavio Cobolli - Yibing Wu	3:0 ✺
25.05.26	Flavio Cobolli - Andrea Pellegrino	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roland Garros
29.05.25	Flavio Cobolli - Matteo Arnaldi	3:1
ATP Umag
26.07.23	Flavio Cobolli - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2
ATP Challenger
01.08.22	Flavio Cobolli - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2
26.05.22	Matteo Arnaldi - Flavio Cobolli	2:1
13.10.21	Matteo Arnaldi - Flavio Cobolli	1:2

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