Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: French Open, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 3 June 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Court Philippe-Chatrier (Paris) 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Belgium	20:25	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia And Herzegovina	20:25	HBO Max
Bulgaria	21:25	HBO Max
Croatia	20:25	HBO Max
Czech Republic	20:25	HBO Max
Denmark	20:25	HBO Max
Finland	21:25	HBO Max
Hungary	20:25	HBO Max
Moldova	21:25	HBO Max
Montenegro	20:25	HBO Max
Netherlands	20:25	HBO Max
North Macedonia	20:25	HBO Max
Norway	20:25	HBO Max
Poland	20:25	HBO Max
Romania	21:25	HBO Max
Serbia	20:25	HBO Max
Slovenia	20:25	HBO Max
Spain	20:25	HBO Max
Sweden	20:25	HBO Max
United Kingdom	19:25	HBO Max


	Matteo Berrettini		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	1.5	2.63	Watch
			Watch
	1.52	2.55
	1.56	2.66
	1.58	2.44	Watch
	1.5	2.6
	1.57	2.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.58)	2.58 ↑ (2.44)

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Berrettini
62.6%

Matteo Arnaldi
37.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

60.7%

39.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.9%

36.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Berrettini has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Berrettini than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.1%	0%	14.9%

Matteo Berrettini - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Berrettini (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Arnaldi (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 Games - Berrettini (1.76) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +4.5 Games - Arnaldi (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Matteo Berrettini will win (39 of 46 users predict this - 84.78%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.4% – 95.16%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Berrettini (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Arnaldi (votes: 3 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Berrettini is ranked ATP: 105. Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 104.

Now, both players are in good form.

Berrettini might have a minor edge in this game.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Berrettini
ATP Roland Garros
01.06.26	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Matteo Berrettini	0:3 ✺
30.05.26	Matteo Berrettini - Francisco Comesana	3:2 ✺
28.05.26	Arthur Rinderknech - Matteo Berrettini	0:3 ✺
25.05.26	Marton Fucsovics - Matteo Berrettini	1:3 ✺
ATP Challenger
14.05.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Matteo Berrettini	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWWWL
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Roland Garros
01.06.26	Francis Tiafoe - Matteo Arnaldi	2:3 ✺
30.05.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Raphael Collignon	3:2 ✺
28.05.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Stefanos Tsitsipas	3:1 ✺
26.05.26	Tallon Griekspoor - Matteo Arnaldi	1:3 ✺
ATP Roma
10.05.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Rafael Jodar	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WWWWL

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Berrettini
ATP Vienna
30.10.26	Matteo Berrettini - Alex De Minaur	✺

Matteo Berrettini - Matteo Arnaldi