Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/64-finals

Date: 7 May 2026, Thursday


	Stefanos Tsitsipas		Tomas Machac

	1	2
	1.57	2.38	Watch
	1.62	2.32	Watch
	1.68	2.34
	1.6	2.33	Watch
	1.62	2.3
	1.67	2.21	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.87)	2.31 ↑ (1.87)

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stefanos Tsitsipas
58.7%

Tomas Machac
41.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

51.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stefanos Tsitsipas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Stefanos Tsitsipas's performance.

Tomas Machac has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tomas Machac might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stefanos Tsitsipas than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Stefanos Tsitsipas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tomas Machac than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tomas Machac could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.6%	0%	21.4%

Stefanos Tsitsipas - Tomas Machac Predictions

Users Predictions: Stefanos Tsitsipas will win (11 of 14 users predict this - 78.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 57.08% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Stefanos Tsitsipas will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Tsitsipas is ranked ATP: 75. Machac is ranked ATP: 41.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Tsitsipas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Tsitsipas might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Tsitsipas won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Stefanos Tsitsipas - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stefanos Tsitsipas
ATP Madrid
28.04.26	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Casper Ruud	1:2 ✺
27.04.26	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Alexander Bublik - Stefanos Tsitsipas	0:2 ✺
23.04.26	Patrick Kypson - Stefanos Tsitsipas	1:2 ✺
ATP Munich
15.04.26	Fabian Marozsan - Stefanos Tsitsipas	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LWWWL
- Tomas Machac
ATP Madrid
24.04.26	Cameron Norrie - Tomas Machac	2:1 ✺
22.04.26	Tomas Machac - Francisco Comesana	2:1 ✺
ATP Barcelona
17.04.26	Tomas Machac - Andrey Rublev	0:2 ✺
16.04.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Tomas Machac	Machac T. Walkover ✺
14.04.26	Tomas Machac - Sebastian Baez	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LWL?W

Latest Head to Head

ATP Australian Open
22.01.26	Tomas Machac - Stefanos Tsitsipas	3:1
ATP Vienna
26.10.23	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Tomas Machac	2:1

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