Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cagliari, clay - Final

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday


	Hubert Hurkacz		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	1.33	3.25	Watch
	1.32	3.05	Watch
	1.39	3.37
	1.35	3.11	Watch
	1.36	3
	1.33	3.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.39)	3.14 ↑ (2.79)

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hubert Hurkacz
70%

Matteo Arnaldi
30%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.7%

33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.1%

37.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hubert Hurkacz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hubert Hurkacz than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hubert Hurkacz that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Matteo Arnaldi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Hubert Hurkacz - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Hurkacz will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Arnaldi will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Hubert Hurkacz will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Hurkacz is ranked ATP: 63. Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 103.

Currently, both players are in excellent shape.

In this match, Hurkacz is seen as the favorite.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hubert Hurkacz
ATP Challenger
02.05.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Roman Andres Burruchaga	2:1 ✺
01.05.26	Matteo Berrettini - Hubert Hurkacz	1:2 ✺
30.04.26	Emilio Nava - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2 ✺
28.04.26	Zachary Svajda - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
24.04.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWWWL
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Challenger
02.05.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Gianluca Cadenasso	2:1 ✺
01.05.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Nuno Borges	2:1 ✺
30.04.26	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
29.04.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
20.04.26	Dusan Lajovic - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWWWL

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