Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cherbourg, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 11 March 2026, Wednesday


	Matteo Martineau		Pavel Kotov

	1	2
	2.5	1.5	Watch
			Watch
	2.72	1.49
	2.5	1.47	Watch
	2.63	1.44	Watch
	2.94	1.35	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 ↑ (2.02)	1.45 ↓ (1.7)

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Matteo Martineau
35.3%

Pavel Kotov
64.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.7%

54.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

51.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Martineau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Matteo Martineau's form might have worsened.

Pavel Kotov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Pavel Kotov's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Martineau than the current prediction. (+13.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Matteo Martineau, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pavel Kotov than the current prediction. (-13.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pavel Kotov, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Matteo Martineau - Pavel Kotov Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Martineau will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Kotov will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +2.5 Games - Martineau (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Martineau (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

#ad

Preview

Martineau is ranked ATP: 326. Kotov is ranked ATP: 402.

Martineau has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Kotov is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Kotov may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Kotov will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Kotov will win today's game, with odds of 1.57.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Martineau won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Matteo Martineau - the odds 2.02 are the expected chance of winning is 45.7%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Pavel Kotov - the odds 1.7 are the expected chance of winning is 54.3%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Martineau
ATP Challenger
09.03.26	Keegan Smith - Matteo Martineau	1:2 ✺
01.03.26	Matteo Martineau - Keegan Smith	0:2 ✺
27.02.26	Sebastian Ofner - Matteo Martineau	2:0 ✺
26.02.26	Matteo Martineau - Jurij Rodionov	2:0 ✺
24.02.26	Matteo Martineau - Antoine Ghibaudo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WLLWW
- Pavel Kotov
ATP Challenger
10.03.26	Pavel Kotov - Clement Chidekh	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Pavel Kotov - Martin Krumich	1:2 ✺
10.02.26	Pavel Kotov - Luca Van Assche	Kotov P. retired ✺
08.02.26	Pavel Kotov - Tom Gentzsch	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Pavel Kotov - Max Schoenhaus	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WL?WW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
30.07.19	Pavel Kotov - Matteo Martineau	2:1

Upcoming Matches