Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Hersonissos, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 3 March 2026, Tuesday


	Michael Geerts		Tiago Pereira

	1	2
	1.5	2.5	Watch
	1.6	2.15	Watch
	1.59	2.42
	1.52	2.36	Watch
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.55	2.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↑ (1.45)	2.33 ↓ (2.54)

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Michael Geerts
60%

Tiago Pereira
40%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.7%

36.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Michael Geerts has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Tiago Pereira has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Michael Geerts than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Michael Geerts, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tiago Pereira than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tiago Pereira, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Michael Geerts - Tiago Pereira Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Geerts (votes: 1 - 50%). Pereira (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Geerts is ranked ATP: 299. Pereira is ranked ATP: 270.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Geerts may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Geerts will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Michael Geerts - the odds 1.45 are the expected chance of winning is 63.66%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Michael Geerts
ATP Challenger
23.02.26	Michael Geerts - Felix Gill	1:2 ✺
20.02.26	Felix Gill - Michael Geerts	2:1 ✺
19.02.26	Michael Geerts - Daniel Michalski	2:0 ✺
16.02.26	Edas Butvilas - Michael Geerts	0:2 ✺
02.02.26	Michael Geerts - Christoph Negritu	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LLWWL
- Tiago Pereira
ITF Tournaments
28.02.26	Tiago Pereira - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
27.02.26	Gauthier Onclin - Tiago Pereira	0:2 ✺
26.02.26	John Echeverria - Tiago Pereira	1:2 ✺
25.02.26	Hugo Maia - Tiago Pereira	0:2 ✺
20.02.26	Tiago Pereira - Gauthier Onclin	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LWWWL

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