Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: RIO DE JANEIRO (BRAZIL), CLAY - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 24 February 2023, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Croatia	SportKlub
Czech-republic	Eurosport 2
France	Eurosport 2
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top event
Hungary	Eurosport 2
Poland	Polsat Sport News
Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub
Sweden	Discovery+, Eurosport 2
Ukraine	Setanta Sports


	Nicolas Jarry		Sebastian Baez

	1	2
	1.8	2	Watch
	1.72	2.1
	1.77	2.06
	1.77	2.18
	1.8	2
	1.72	2.12	Watch
	2	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (1.99)	2.04 ↑ (1.84)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nicolas Jarry
53.2%

Sebastian Baez
46.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48%

52%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

52.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nicolas Jarry has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nicolas Jarry's performance.

Sebastian Baez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sebastian Baez might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nicolas Jarry than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nicolas Jarry that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sebastian Baez could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.5%	0%	42.5%

Nicolas Jarry - Sebastian Baez Predictions

Users Predictions: 40 users predict this event. Jarry will win (votes: 23 - 57.5%). Baez will win (votes: 17 - 42.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Jarry: 42.2% – 72.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

At the moment players are feeling good and ready to play.

Jarry could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Jarry won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nicolas Jarry
ATP Rio de Janeiro
23.02.23	Nicolas Jarry - Pedro Martinez Portero	2:0 ✺
20.02.23	Lorenzo Musetti - Nicolas Jarry	0:2 ✺
19.02.23	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Nicolas Jarry	0:2 ✺
18.02.23	Nicolas Jarry - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:0 ✺
ATP Buenos Aires
11.02.23	Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves - Nicolas Jarry	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WWWWL
- Sebastian Baez
ATP Rio de Janeiro
23.02.23	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
22.02.23	Thomaz Bellucci - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
ATP Buenos Aires
14.02.23	Dusan Lajovic - Sebastian Baez	2:1 ✺
ATP Cordoba
12.02.23	Sebastian Baez - Federico Coria	2:1 ✺
11.02.23	Hugo Dellien - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
09.10.21	Sebastian Baez - Nicolas Jarry	2:0

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