Match Info

CHALLENGER WOMEN - SINGLES: Tolentino, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 23 September 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Tolentino 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Noemi Basiletti		Mia Ristic

	1	2
	2.00	1.73	Watch
	2.05	1.72
	2.02	1.76	Watch
	2.12	1.66	Watch
	2.14	1.70
	1.99	1.71	Watch
	2.05	1.70
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.58)	1.71 ↑ (1.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Noemi Basiletti
45.5%

Mia Ristic
54.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

35.8%

64.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.2%

68.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Noemi Basiletti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Noemi Basiletti's performance.

Mia Ristic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mia Ristic might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Noemi Basiletti than the current prediction. (-14.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Noemi Basiletti that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mia Ristic than the current prediction. (+14.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mia Ristic could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15%	0%	85%

Noemi Basiletti - Mia Ristic Predictions

Users Predictions: Mia Ristic will win (17 of 20 users predict this - 85%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.35% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Mia Ristic will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

#ad

Preview

Basiletti is ranked WTA: 246., and Ristic is ranked WTA: 191..

Basiletti has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Ristic have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Ristic could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Noemi Basiletti
ATP Challenger
21.09.26	Laura Samsonova - Noemi Basiletti	0:2 ✺
19.09.26	Mona Barthel - Noemi Basiletti	2:0 ✺
18.09.26	Noemi Basiletti - Ekaterine Gorgodze	2:0 ✺
16.09.26	Noemi Basiletti - Julie Struplova	2:0 ✺
14.09.26	Lola Radivojevic - Noemi Basiletti	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 WLWWW
- Mia Ristic
ATP Challenger
21.09.26	Mia Ristic - Arantxa Rus	2:1 ✺
18.09.26	Mona Barthel - Mia Ristic	2:0 ✺
16.09.26	Miriam Bianca Bulgaru - Mia Ristic	0:2 ✺
15.09.26	Martina Colmegna - Mia Ristic	0:2 ✺
07.09.26	Mia Ristic - Lina Gjorcheska	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLWWL

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mia Ristic
ATP Challenger
27.10.26	Mia Ristic - Martyna Kubka

Noemi Basiletti - Mia Ristic: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide